Generating Income: Part Four of Our Special Five Part Series
During their working years, investors focus on saving and investing with a goal of building wealth. As they enter retirement, either by ceasing paid employment entirely or by scaling back paid employment, investors shift their focus to using their portfolios to provide a reliable long-term stream of income. This transition from building wealth to income generation is the subject of a great deal of research in retirement planning. Once investors are at or near retirement, the most significant financial challenge is using their accumulated savings to provide substantial income for their retirement years. Continue reading →
Realities of Investing: Part Three of Our Special Five Part Series
In the various calculations that project retirement portfolio accumulations through time (such as the two discussed in the previous article), there are assumptions about how investors will allocate their savings and how those investments will perform. In the case of the Fidelity study, no specific asset allocation is provided that would achieve the assumed risk-free 5.5% annual return. In the Ibbotson study, the authors assume that investors hold a combination of a stock index fund and a bond index fund that progressively allocates less to stocks and more to bonds as investors get older. The Ibbotson study also assumes that the stock index (the S&P 500) will have an average annual return of 10.96% per year and that the bond index will have an average return of 4.6% per year. The Ibbotson study ignores expenses associated with investing. Continue reading →
Figuring Out Whether You Are On Track: Part Two of Our Special Five Part Series
Fidelity just came out with a study that estimates that people will need about eight times their final salary level, assuming they work until age sixty seven, to be able to retire and subsequently to have 85% of their pre-retirement income provided from retirement savings plus social security. Fidelity also helpfully provides estimates of what they believe people need to have acquired at different ages. Continue reading →
We Are In Trouble: Part One of Our Special Five Part Series
As the presidential election season of 2012 has gotten underway, there is a massive issue that has gotten very little attention: how Americans will sustain themselves in retirement. In 2010, there were 40 million Americans over the age of 65. By 2030, that number is expected to rise to 70 million, which represents 20% of the total population. At the same time, we have moved from a workforce with traditional pensions to one in which each person chooses how much to save and how to invest that money.
Only 42% of American private-sector workers between ages 25 and 64 have any type of retirement plan in their current job. The majority of Americans (67%) who have access to a pension plan have only self-directed accounts such as 401(k)’s and similar accounts (such as 457(b) plans which cover those who work at non-profits or who are employed by the state or local government organizations). A large number of Americans also have IRAs. We refer to these types of retirement plans as Defined Contribution (DC) plans as opposed to Defined Benefit (DB) plans, the traditional pensions that used to be the norm. Continue reading →
About four and a half years ago, Folio Investing launched an equity (e.g. stock) portfolio that focused on reducing the impact of market volatility. So-called defensive stocks are those which tend to be fairly insensitive to the mood of the market as a whole. Conventional wisdom suggests that demand for band-aids, electricity and paper does not go up when the market is exuberant, but neither does it collapse when the market swoons. The conventional wisdom also suggests that these stocks will tend to under-perform the broader market during rallies and, over the long-term, that a portfolio of these stocks will deliver modest returns. Our research suggested, however, that it was possible to create a portfolio of defensive stocks that would provide returns to keep up with rallies in the broader market, while still substantially reducing the impact of market volatility. Folio Investing launched the Defensive Strategy Folio that incorporated this research on February 28, 2008. Continue reading →
In Part I of this article, I explained why I have issues with the traditional idea that individuals should provide for their required level of retirement income (beyond what is provided by Social Security and any pensions) entirely with assets with zero risk of loss of principal (e.g. Treasury bonds). In Part II, I discuss the alternative approaches.
There are two investments that have zero loss of principal: traditional Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which are Treasury bonds with embedded protection against inflation.
I agree with the notion that people need to save and invest so as to be able to provide a very reliable and consistent income stream in retirement. Zvi Bodie has presented a compelling argument that investments in stocks do not become less risky as you hold them for longer periods, so that investors cannot rely on stocks as part of their required income stream. I have performed detailed analysis of Bodie’s argument and I agree with his argument: the magnitude of loss that you can face with an equity-heavy portfolio increases the longer you hold the portfolio. As I noted in Part I, William Bernstein has recently advocated for a portfolio in which all of your required income is provided by Treasuries and annuities, largely consistent with Bodie. Continue reading →
Every once in a while, I receive a stack of paper in the mail from Vanguard addressed to “Plan Administrator,” which gives me an undeserved sense of self-importance.
No, I didn’t select “Plan Administrator” from a drop-down list of salutations that also included “Dr.,” “Lord,” and “Marquis”; I am actually the administrator of a 401(k) plan. The plan has one participant. Guess who? Continue reading →