Tag Archives: performance

Proving the Value of Risk Management in Retirement Planning

The Wall Street Journal’s recent article, “Same Returns, Less Risk” discusses different approaches to managing portfolio risk while maintaining exposure to potential returns available from stocks and other riskier asset classes.  

 If you are a Portfolioist reader, you know that we’ve written about the importance of risk budgeting in the past (see, “Risk Budgeting: A Critical Tool for Portfolio Management”). You also know that we believe that risk budgeting is an important part of successful long-term investing. That’s why we constructed our line-up of Target Date Folios using a risk budgeting approach—and this stands in stark contrast to the strategy used in more traditional Target Date Mutual Funds that generally use static asset allocations that don’t adjust their risk allocations in volatile market conditions. Continue reading

Q3 2011: Another Test for 2010 Target Date Funds

The third quarter of 2011 was impressively bad.  The S&P 500 Index lost 13.9% for the quarter.  The VIX, the standard measure of market volatility, repeatedly closed above 40 during this quarter. To put this in perspective, the average daily closing value of VIX from the start of 1990 through the end of September 2011 was 20.5. The average daily closing value for VIX during Q3 of 2011 was 30.6. 

Many critics of Target Date funds felt that these funds lost too much during the bear market in 2008. Special attention was focused on 2010 Target Date funds, funds designed for investors planning to retire in 2010. The poor performance of these funds even got the attention of the SEC, which proposed new disclosure standards. Market observers (including the SEC) noted that 2010 Target Date mutual funds lost an average of 24% in 2008. In light of 2008, many funds redesigned their asset allocations to be more resistant to massive market declines. 

Now, let’s flash forward three years. Continue reading

Is Your Home Still A Good Investment?

Dr. Robert Shiller, the renowned Yale professor and creator of the S&P Case-Shiller Housing Index, recently made several dire announcements about the short-term and long-term prospects for the housing market. Asked for his prediction on housing prices in a recent interview, Dr. Shiller reported that prices might fall another 10% to 25% in the next few years. (Shiller also acknowledges that forecasting the direction of the housing market is as hard as predicting the weather and that we are in uncharted territory on a range of fronts.)

The Housing Market: A History of Poor Performance

Let’s set aside the short-term housing predictions and focus on long-term issues.

Dr. Shiller analyzed the financial benefits of home ownership from an investor’s point of view. His research found that housing prices did not outperform Continue reading

Do Performance Claims Really Add Up?

Jason Zweig, well-known author of “The Intelligent Investor” column at The Wall Street Journal, recently checked out the claims of market-beating performance in marketing materials from a range of market commentators.

For example, Jim Cramer’s newsletter was reported by Zweig as stating that his stock picks generated returns more than twice the performance of the S&P 500 Index from Jan 1, 2002 to April 1, 2011. Over this period, the newsletter described Mr. Cramer’s performance as generating 39.2% vs.15.5% for the S&P 500.

Mr. Zweig noticed, however, that in Mr. Cramer’s performance comparison, the returns cited for his stock picks included dividends, while the returns cited for the S&P 500 Index (over the same period) did not. Continue reading